The Peculiar Blindness of Experts — Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.
Great article on why you need to question the Mainstream fascination with Experts as a whole. Especially when it comes to marketing and sales. They are not a little bit wrong, but a whole lot wrong about pretty much everything.
The truth of the matter is if you use common sense and think things through, put a little bit of time and effort into quite a few things, you can be better than most experts.